Every farming business relies on a series of assumptions when planning for the season ahead. Stocking rates, wintering programmes, feed budgets and cashflow projections are all built around the expectation that crops will deliver the yield they were intended to produce.
While seasonal conditions, establishment practices and management decisions can all influence the final outcome, the consequences of underperforming crops are often underestimated. A crop that falls short of target yield doesn't simply create a feed deficit. It can have a ripple effect across the wider farming system, impacting profitability, operational flexibility and future planning.
When crops fail to achieve their intended yield, the shortfall must be addressed elsewhere within the farming system. In some situations, this may involve purchasing supplementary feed to bridge the gap. In others, it can mean reducing stock numbers, altering grazing plans or carrying less feed into the following season than originally intended.
These decisions are rarely made in isolation. Additional feed purchases often occur when demand is high and prices are elevated, while changes to stocking policies can impact production targets and long-term business performance. The challenge is not simply the cost of replacing the feed that wasn't grown, but the cumulative impact of the decisions that follow.
As input costs continue to rise and farming systems become increasingly complex, many farmers are placing greater value on certainty than ever before. The ability to plan with confidence has become just as important as the yield itself.
For Brad Rogers, who manages Epworth Dairies near Geraldine, that certainty was a key factor in adopting SureYield™.
Milking approximately 1,400 cows across a farming system that includes both irrigated and dryland country, Brad understands first-hand the impact seasonal variability can have on crop performance and feed supply.
"We've got areas under irrigation, but we've also got dryland country where rainfall can be variable. SureYield™ helps spread some of that risk."
Rather than focusing on achieving the highest possible yield in any one season, Brad sees greater value in reducing volatility and creating consistency within the business.
"It's not really about winning. It's more about taking out the highs and lows and trying to make things more consistent from year to year."
That consistency extends well beyond the paddock. Crop performance influences feed budgets, wintering programmes and business planning, making certainty a valuable asset in its own right.
"We're able to sit down over winter, look at what last year's costs were, what the challenges might be for the coming season and lock in a price. The runoff business knows what its margins are likely to be, and the dairy farms know what they're going to pay. It makes budgeting and planning a lot easier."
Historically, the relationship between farmer and agronomist has been built around advice. Recommendations are made regarding crop selection, nutrition, pest management and establishment, with the farmer ultimately carrying the responsibility for the final outcome.
While this model has served the industry for many years, it has also created a situation where the majority of the financial risk sits with the farming business. As cropping systems become more sophisticated and input costs continue to rise, many farmers are beginning to question whether this remains the best approach.
SureYield™ was developed in response to this challenge.
Rather than operating as a traditional agronomy service, SureYield™ is a fixed-price crop management programme designed around shared accountability and clearly defined performance targets. At the beginning of the season, yield objectives and feed requirements are agreed upon. Catalyst then assumes responsibility for managing the crop throughout the season, with performance measured against those agreed targets.
The principle is straightforward. If the agreed yield target is not achieved, Catalyst shares in the financial consequences. If targets are exceeded, the reward is shared. The result is a model that aligns the interests of both parties and creates a genuine partnership focused on achieving the best possible outcome.
For Brad, one of the most significant differences is knowing the people managing the crop have a genuine financial stake in the outcome.
"Having someone with a financial investment in the crop gives you peace of mind. You know they're going to do everything they can to get the best result because they've got skin in the game too."
It is this accountability that continues to resonate with farmers looking for greater certainty around crop performance and feed supply.
"The good thing with SureYield™ is we set the yield target and Catalyst carries the risk."
Ultimately, SureYield™ is not simply about growing better crops. It is about creating greater confidence within the wider farming system. When farmers have confidence in the feed they are growing, they are better placed to make informed decisions around stock management, budgeting and future planning. The focus shifts away from managing uncertainty and towards improving overall farm performance.
As farming businesses continue to face increasing pressure from both economic and environmental factors, certainty, accountability and shared responsibility are becoming increasingly valuable. The question for many farmers is no longer whether they can afford to manage risk more effectively, but whether they can afford not to.
If you're reviewing your crop programme for next season and would like to explore whether a fixed-price crop management approach could work for your business, talk to your local Catalyst Agronomist.